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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Weekly COVID-19 Tracker – Dec 15

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

  • The US Food and Drug Administration is believed to be days away from approving a second COVID-19 vaccine, this one from Moderna. The FDA has previously approved the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which is now being administered in the US (as well as the UK). The US death toll from coronavirus now exceeds 300,000, and there is set to be a major drive in the country to convince citizens of the vaccines' safety. While over 80% of Americans said they would be willing to get vaccinated in a December ABC/Ipsos poll (above the proportion needed to gain herd immunity from the virus), only 40% said they would be willing to get vaccinated immediately.
  • A number of major European countries are re-entering strict periods of lockdown as cases, hospitalisations, and fatalities continue to increase. In the Netherlands, the country has entered a five-week lockdown with all non-essential shops closing. Germany's new lockdown runs from 16 December to 10 January, with schools and non-essential shops shut. France has removed some restrictions as it exits lockdown, although the loosening has not been as significant as initially expected. In the UK, London and some of its surrounds are to re-enter the highest Tier 3 restrictions from 16 December. All countries have in place a short window around Christmas where travel and staying with some family members or friends is allowed.
  • Australia and New Zealand have agreed to the establishment of a quarantine-free travel corridor between the two countries 'in principle' from early next year. At present, New Zealanders can enter most Australian states without quarantine, but this is not the case in reverse. Both countries have effectively eliminated community transmission of the virus following strict lockdowns made simpler by the two country's relative isolation from major transport hubs as in Europe and North America.
Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0700BST Dec 15. N.b. Each dot represents a single day's figures, data for past three months

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