MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 4

MNI BRIEF: China Has Four Months To Negotiate EU EV Agreement

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: ISM Choppiness Not A Clear Signal For Worry

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY98 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1305 Thurs; -0.79% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

Factory Orders Decline as Non-EU Orders Dip

DMP survey increases probability of August cut

MNI: UK JUNE CONSTRUCTION PMI 52.2 (FCST: 54.0); MAY 54.7

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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MNI POLITICAL RISK - Biden Buys Himself A Week To Salvage Race

Daily round-up of news from the US.

Political RiskPolitical Market News

Executive Summary:

  • President Biden’s team appears to have convinced wavering Democrats to allow the President a week to turn his campaign around and reverse the damage of his calamitous debate performance. Biden told his campaign staff: "Let me say this as clearly... I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end."
  • Tomorrow, Biden will record an interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos in Wisconsin. Stephanopoulos is an experienced political operative and journalist unlikely to pull punches on Biden’s health and age. After the interview, Biden will deliver campaign speeches in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – two key swing states he must win to secure a second term.
  • The July 4 holiday appears to have bought Biden some time to turn the ship around, but traders at prediction markets still see Biden withdrawing from the race as probable, coalescing around Vice President Kamala Harris as the most likely replacement nominee.
  • The Senate will begin marking up Fiscal Year 2025 bills next week. Senate Democrats and Republicans have failed to agree on topline spending numbers, so expect the bills to pass along party lines.
  • President Biden may get a rare piece of good news this weekend, with gas prices expected to be lower than in the past few years.
  • Tech leaders are prepping for how a Trump second term could change the trajectory of the artificial intelligence sector.
  • Poll of the Day: NYT/Siena College reports a three-point swing to Trump since the debate.

Please find the full article attached below:

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Executive Summary:

  • President Biden’s team appears to have convinced wavering Democrats to allow the President a week to turn his campaign around and reverse the damage of his calamitous debate performance. Biden told his campaign staff: "Let me say this as clearly... I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end."
  • Tomorrow, Biden will record an interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos in Wisconsin. Stephanopoulos is an experienced political operative and journalist unlikely to pull punches on Biden’s health and age. After the interview, Biden will deliver campaign speeches in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – two key swing states he must win to secure a second term.
  • The July 4 holiday appears to have bought Biden some time to turn the ship around, but traders at prediction markets still see Biden withdrawing from the race as probable, coalescing around Vice President Kamala Harris as the most likely replacement nominee.
  • The Senate will begin marking up Fiscal Year 2025 bills next week. Senate Democrats and Republicans have failed to agree on topline spending numbers, so expect the bills to pass along party lines.
  • President Biden may get a rare piece of good news this weekend, with gas prices expected to be lower than in the past few years.
  • Tech leaders are prepping for how a Trump second term could change the trajectory of the artificial intelligence sector.
  • Poll of the Day: NYT/Siena College reports a three-point swing to Trump since the debate.

Please find the full article attached below:

Keep reading...Show less