MNI POLITICAL RISK - Chaos In House Republican Party Deepens

Executive Summary:

• House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) yesterday withdrew his candidacy for speaker of the House of Representatives, plunging House Republicans deeper into crisis with no clear route to electing a speaker.
• House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH) now becomes the presumptive frontrunner but his historical position as an anti-establishment firebrand makes him an uneasy fit for the leadership. The developments raise the prospect of an extended period of paralysis in the House and increases the likelihood of a government shutdown on November 17.
• Reports are circulating that talks are underway between moderate Republicans and Democrats to find a bipartisan solution but Democrats see little benefit in working to resolve a crisis of Republican making, and any Republican rep who strikes a deal with Democrats will likely face a primary challenge next year.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to Jordan and Qatar today as he seeks to prevent the war between Israel and Hamas escalating into a wider conflagration.
• White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby offered a forceful defence of the Biden administration's USD$6b deal with Iran - shaping up as a major political vulnerability for the White House.
• Democrat Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) was yesterday hit with a superseding indictment from federal prosecutors alleging he conspired to act as an agent for the government of Egypt.
• Poll of the Day: 81% of Americans say it unacceptable to threaten a government shutdown during budget negotiations.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily131023.pdf