MNI POLITICAL RISK- Congress On Narrow Track To Avoid Shutdown

Executive Summary:

• Funding for six government agencies representing roughly two-thirds of discretionary federal spending runs out at midnight on Friday. Five of the six FY24 bills are reportedly ready to go but a deal on the Department of Homeland Security remains stalled by disputes on border security.
• Last week, appropriators appeared set to punt border policy by funding DHS with a continuing resolution through the end of FY24. But after a weekend intervention from the White House, negotiators have pivoted back to a full-year spending bill with the text expected today.
• If the final deal is released today, the earliest the House can vote is Thursday - leaving the Senate with just one day to clear the package before the deadline. The tight timeline points to a moderate risk of a short government shutdown but as the chamber would likely grind down opposition over the weekend any economic or political fallout would be negligible.
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) may have to schedule a cloture vote on the USD$78 billion bipartisan tax bill this week or risk the legislation stalling permanently in the Senate Finance Committee.
• There is a slight chance that two of former President Donald Trump’s four criminal trials could get underway before the election in November after prosecutors in Georgia and New York avoided worse-case scenario rulings.
• Trump’s economic advisors have presented the former president with a shortlist of three potential candidates to lead the Federal Reserve.
• Poll of the Day: Iran climbs the list of US enemies.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily180324.pdf