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MNI POLITICAL RISK - Debate Sounds Alarm Bells For Biden

US
  • The odds of US President Joe Biden retaining the presidency in November cratered after a weak debate performance against former president Donald Trump. It was a worst-case-scenario performance in a debate intended to reset concerns over his age and reframe the election as a referendum on the presumptive nominees.
  • Biden has sunk to around a 17% implied probability of winning the election, and betting markets see around a 40% implied probability he will drop out of the race before Election Day.
  • It is too early to gauge voter sentiment with quantitative data, but the prevailing view is that Trump exceeded expectations and Biden failed to achieve his relatively modest goals. Trump delivered a controlled performance and the debate rules, which were presumed beneficial to Biden, worked in Trump’s favour by reducing combative exchanges.
  • Trump had never won a post-debate poll in any of his previous five presidential debates. He won yesterday’s debate 67-33 in CNN’s poll of debate watchers, an extraordinary result considering the partisan nature of modern US politics.
  • Over the coming days, the clamour will intensify from Democrat donors and voters for Biden to step aside. If the White House chooses to play defensive, it would be an exceptionally risky strategy. There are still four months until Election Day, and Biden will have to navigate a second debate on September 10. In the meantime, voters in swing states will be hit with Republican campaign ads highlighting Biden’s cognitive decline.
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