MNI POLITICAL RISK - Democrat 'Reset' Continues Under Harris

Executive Summary:

• The presidential campaigns of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump today continue their duelling swing-state tours. Harris and her vice-presidential nominee, Governor Tim Walz (D-MN), are scheduled to appear alongside United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain in Detroit today, a sign that Harris appears to have consolidated President Biden's union support.
• Democrats continue to outspend Republicans on advertising in the presidential race and key Senate races, allying concerns that Democrats could lose their funding edge amid the turbulence of Biden's withdrawal from the race.
• More than a dozen House Republicans have written to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) urging him not to fully repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, should the GOP win all three branches of government in November.
• US officials continue to express optimism that a Gaza ceasefire deal, seen as critical to lowering tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, is in the final stages.
• Illegal border crossing at the US-Mexico border fell to their lowest level since 2020, reflecting successful cooperation between Washington and New Mexico and a restrictive executive order signed by President Biden in June. If migrant crossings continue to decrease, it could derisk a major political vulnerability for Kamala Harris.
• Two key election ratings outlets have shifted key races back towards Harris, reversing some of the slide towards Trump following the first presidential debate.
• Poll of the Day: Harris surges to a six-point lead amongst likely voters.

Please find the full article attached below:

MNIPOLRISKUSDaily080824.pdf