MNI POLITICAL RISK - Dems Continue Special Election Streak

Executive Summary:

• An Ohio special election delivered a major upside surprise for Democrats yesterday. Republican state Senator Michael Rulli (R) won by just under 10 percentage-points, a significant underperformance in a rural, blue collar district which Trump won by 29 points in 2020. The race has echoes of a string of special elections in 2022 which foreshadowed a Democratic Party overperformance at the 2022 midterm elections.
• President Biden departs today for Puglia, Italy for the G7 leaders’ summit, his second European trip in a week. G7 leaders are expected to release a final plan on using immobilised Russian sovereign assets to underwrite a USD$50 billion loan for Ukraine, but the plan may be complicated by objections from France and Germany.
• Democratic Party-affiliated Hollywood celebrities are turning out in support of Biden.
• The House Rules Committee teed up floor action on the House version of National Defense Authorization Act, approving votes on 350 amendments.
• Republicans and Democrats are formulating strategy for how to approach former President Donald Trump’s tax cuts when they expire in 2025.
• Senate Budget Chair Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) will tell the committee today that Wall Street must pay its “fair share” when new tax policy is devised in 2025.
• CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will deliver the agency’s semi-annual report to Congress today, warning of increased financial surveillance from corporations.
• Trump is making his first return to Capitol Hill since he left the White House, to discuss Republican strategy for 2025.
• Poll of the Day: Fundamentals favour Biden despite Trump's polling advantage.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily120624.pdf