MNI POLITICAL RISK- Elections Weekly: Biden's Polling Holds Up

Executive Summary:

• President Biden appears to have done enough to buy himself a few days’ reprieve from the Democratic Party rebellion against his presidential candidacy.
• Two under-the-radar remarks from Biden’s high-profile NATO presser caught our attention yesterday. Biden said: “I believe I’m the best qualified to govern and I think I’m the best qualified to win, but there are other people who could beat Trump, too.”
• That comment appears to open the door for Biden to step aside, should it become evident that his campaign is untenable and data suggests another candidate could outperform him.
• How would Biden determine he can’t beat Trump? When asked if he would step aside if his team provided polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris was better placed to win, Biden said: “No, unless they came back and said there’s no way you can win. They’re not saying that. No poll says that.”
• He is currently correct about the polling. The Democrat rebellion is, for now, based on an understanding that Biden’s terminal electoral vulnerability cannot be overcome by time, rather than a knockout blow in public opinion.
• The polls are not showing with any certainty, beyond the margin of error, that Biden is out of contention. But that tipping point may not be too far away. When that happens, according to one interpretation of the above remark, Biden may be open to transitioning to a new candidate.
• We have a round-up of the notable election news and a summary of polling, election forecasts, and prediction market data inside.

Please find the full article attached below:

MNIPOLRISKElectionsWeeklyPollingInRangeForBiden .pdf