MNI POLITICAL RISK - Elections Weekly: Harris Leads In Polls

Executive Summary:

• Vice President Kamala Harris continues to ride the enthusiasm surge that accompanied President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Harris’ lightning-quick consolidation of the Democrat nomination.
• It remains to be seen if her strategy, centred on scripted public events rather than press conferences that could risk missteps, can maintain momentum through November. But the Democratic Party National Convention, which gets underway on Monday, should keep positive Democrat vibes high while Trump struggles to alight on a coherent strategy for countering Harris.
• The consensus view amongst major polling outlets is that Harris is now likely the slight favourite as her polling recovery has opened up new pathways to the electoral college that don’t appear to exist for Trump. Realistically, while Harris has a moderate edge in the polls, the race is a toss-up.
• Momentum can change quickly, with Trump’s misfires unlikely to continue for long. Likely recognising his strategic errors, Trump has refreshed his inner circle, which may bring more focus to his campaign in the coming weeks.
• Inside, we have a full round-up of the week's polling trends and analysis of election forecasts and prediction market data.

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MNIPOLRISKUSElectionsWeeklyWHRaceTossup.pdf