MNI POLITICAL RISK - Elections Weekly: Harris Resets 2024 Race

Executive Summary:

• On August 6, Vice President Kamala Harris announced that she had chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) as her running mate for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential ticket.
• Harris’ VP shortlist included two candidates - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) - many analysts considered more strategic choices than Walz. However, conventional wisdom suggests that a VP selection rarely impacts an electoral outcome and Walz satisfies enough criteria to be considered a safe selection.
• A series of surveys have shown a major recalibration of the race since Harris was elevated to the top of the ticket. Most polling aggregators suggest that Harris may be in a slightly better position than Biden prior to the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump.
• With polling data limited, much of the action since Biden’s withdrawal has taken place on the prediction and betting markets. Traders are generally agreed, across various markets, that Harris’ nomination has sufficiently reset the race into the ‘toss-up’ territory.
• Inside: A round-up of the week's notable surveys and market moving election news, and a chart pack of polls and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below:

MNIPOLRISKUSElectionsWeeklyHarrisReset.pdf