MNI BRIEF: Canada Aug Home Prices Flat After Second Rate Cut

MNI BRIEF: ECB To Remove More Restrictiveness If Data In Line

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

MNI BRIEF: China CPI Expected To Rise Moderately - NBS

MNI BRIEF: China Aug Output, Investment Hit Lowest Of The Year

CHINA AUG INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +4.5% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +4.6% Y/Y: NBS

MNI: CANADIAN JUL MANUFACTURING SALES +1.4% MOM

MNI: US NY FED EMPIRE STATE MFG INDEX 11.5 SEP

BoJ Data Watch

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI POLITICAL RISK - Elections Weekly: Harris Resets 2024 Race

Weekly snapshot of the US elections.

Political RiskPolitical Market News

Executive Summary:

  • On August 6, Vice President Kamala Harris announced that she had chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) as her running mate for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential ticket.
  • Harris’ VP shortlist included two candidates - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) - many analysts considered more strategic choices than Walz. However, conventional wisdom suggests that a VP selection rarely impacts an electoral outcome and Walz satisfies enough criteria to be considered a safe selection.
  • A series of surveys have shown a major recalibration of the race since Harris was elevated to the top of the ticket. Most polling aggregators suggest that Harris may be in a slightly better position than Biden prior to the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump.
  • With polling data limited, much of the action since Biden’s withdrawal has taken place on the prediction and betting markets. Traders are generally agreed, across various markets, that Harris’ nomination has sufficiently reset the race into the ‘toss-up’ territory.
  • Inside: A round-up of the week's notable surveys and market moving election news, and a chart pack of polls and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below:

Keep reading...Show less
200 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Executive Summary:

  • On August 6, Vice President Kamala Harris announced that she had chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) as her running mate for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential ticket.
  • Harris’ VP shortlist included two candidates - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) - many analysts considered more strategic choices than Walz. However, conventional wisdom suggests that a VP selection rarely impacts an electoral outcome and Walz satisfies enough criteria to be considered a safe selection.
  • A series of surveys have shown a major recalibration of the race since Harris was elevated to the top of the ticket. Most polling aggregators suggest that Harris may be in a slightly better position than Biden prior to the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump.
  • With polling data limited, much of the action since Biden’s withdrawal has taken place on the prediction and betting markets. Traders are generally agreed, across various markets, that Harris’ nomination has sufficiently reset the race into the ‘toss-up’ territory.
  • Inside: A round-up of the week's notable surveys and market moving election news, and a chart pack of polls and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below:

Keep reading...Show less