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MNI POLITICAL RISK-Elections Weekly: Race Tied Ahead Of Debate

Weekly snapshot of the US elections.

Political RiskPolitical Market News

Executive Summary:

  • The presidential race has been relatively static since last week, with polling continuing to point to a slight advantage for Harris in the popular vote and exceptionally tight races across the swing states.
  • Harris and Trump are preparing for their first, and likely only, presidential debate. The debate will be hosted by ABC News on September 10 and follow the same rules as the debate between Trump and Biden.
  • There has been some reporting this week comparing Harris’ polling on Labor Day unfavourably to that of previous Democrat candidates, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton.
  • Democrat chances of retaining the Senate look increasingly slim, with a new bipartisan poll showing Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) struggling in the critical Montana Senate race. If Tester loses in Montana, Democrats must win a seat elsewhere. Florida and Texas, the only two possible competitive races, are still leaning Republican, but some polling is pointing towards tighter-than-expected races.
  • Biden’s approval rating, and Harris’ favourability rating, have both ticked up significantly since the Democratic Party switched up the top of the ticket.
  • Nate Silver’s presidential election forecast remains bearish on Harris, assessing Trump has a 60% implied probability of winning in November. Silver’s model is an inverse of his former firm 538’s more bullish forecast for Harris.
  • Inside: A round-up of polling news and analysis of forecast models and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below:

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Executive Summary:

  • The presidential race has been relatively static since last week, with polling continuing to point to a slight advantage for Harris in the popular vote and exceptionally tight races across the swing states.
  • Harris and Trump are preparing for their first, and likely only, presidential debate. The debate will be hosted by ABC News on September 10 and follow the same rules as the debate between Trump and Biden.
  • There has been some reporting this week comparing Harris’ polling on Labor Day unfavourably to that of previous Democrat candidates, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton.
  • Democrat chances of retaining the Senate look increasingly slim, with a new bipartisan poll showing Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) struggling in the critical Montana Senate race. If Tester loses in Montana, Democrats must win a seat elsewhere. Florida and Texas, the only two possible competitive races, are still leaning Republican, but some polling is pointing towards tighter-than-expected races.
  • Biden’s approval rating, and Harris’ favourability rating, have both ticked up significantly since the Democratic Party switched up the top of the ticket.
  • Nate Silver’s presidential election forecast remains bearish on Harris, assessing Trump has a 60% implied probability of winning in November. Silver’s model is an inverse of his former firm 538’s more bullish forecast for Harris.
  • Inside: A round-up of polling news and analysis of forecast models and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below:

Keep reading...Show less