MNI POLITICAL RISK - Harris Seeks To Shed Incumbency Baggage

Executive Summary:

• Former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama headlined day two of the Democratic National Convention, delivering remarks designed to reframe Vice President Kamala Harris' candidacy as a break from the baggage associated with President Biden and cast Harris as a challenger rather than an incumbent.
• Today at the DNC, Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) will take centre stage. After a strong start to his campaign, where he polled favourably against Trump’s VP nominee JD Vance, his news cycle has soured slightly.
• Former President Donald Trump will today attend his first outdoor rally since last month’s assassination attempt. His remarks in North Carolina are expected to focus on immigration and the US-Mexico border, a key vulnerability for Harris.
• A new survey has provided more data to support the theory that Harris is gaining momentum amongst Latino voters.
• The implied probability of independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrawing from the presidential race surged yesterday amid reports he may endorse Trump.
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has issued a bullish assessment of Democrats’ chances of retaining control of the Senate in November.
• The Gaza ceasefire deal that has been the centre of intensive diplomacy this week could be on the brink of collapse.
• Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Russia has, "really struggled to respond,” to Ukraine's incursion in the Kursk region.
• Poll of the Day: Harris strengthens in North Carolina.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily210824.pdf