MNI POLITICAL RISK - Momentum Builds Around Biden Withdrawal

Executive Summary:

• President Biden’s hold on the presumptive Democratic Party presidential nomination is looking increasingly tenuous after the protective wall around Biden appeared to crack yesterday. Polls report that Democrats want a new nominee, and that a new nominee is likely to fare better than Biden.
• Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) told MSNBC yesterday: "I think it's a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition?" - Comments were widely interpreted as prodding Biden towards the exit. Shortly after Pelosi’s interview, 15-term Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) became the first sitting Democratic lawmaker to call on Biden to step aside.
• Democratic governors, reportedly aggrieved that Biden hasn’t personally reached out to them, have called a White House meeting with Biden at 18:30 ET 23:30 BST.
• The headline takeaway from yesterday’s events: Biden is now trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in some betting and prediction markets on the 2024 presidential election winner. Today, Biden and Harris are scheduled to have lunch together, where the ‘vibe shift’ behind a Harris candidacy is certain to feature.
• Former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal sentencing has been postponed until September 18 in light of the SCOTUS ruling on presidential immunity.
• Trump’s plans to renew his first-term tax breaks in 2025 may be more complicated than anticipated.
• White House envoy Amos Hochstein will meet French officials today to discuss ways to prevent a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah.
• Poll of the Day: Sabato's Crystal Ball has downgraded Democrats' chances of winning Michigan and Minnesota.

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