MNI POLITICAL RISK - Optimism Increases For Ukraine Funding

Executive Summary:

• Congressional leaders emerged from a White House meeting with President Biden yesterday expressing cautious optimism that there is a pathway to overhauling US-Mexico border policy and legislating new aid to Ukraine.
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told reporters he is, "more optimistic than ever before,” adding the Senate is “likely” to consider President Biden’s USD$110bln supplemental funding request next week.
• The primary obstacle remains House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) who, under pressure from House conservatives, continues to press for maximalist demands in US-Mexico border negotiations.
• The Senate is expected to begin voting on their Continuing Resolution to fund the government into March at 12:30 ET 17:30 GMT today.
• A roughly USD$80 billion child tax credit/business tax relief deal has inched closer to a vote in Congress.
• US officials continue to assess that the Israel-Hamas conflict is unlikely to expand into a broader conflagration, despite a series of cross-border flare-ups.
• A more belligerent Iran could open up another political vulnerability for Biden. Republicans have persistently hammered Biden on his Iran policy, calling for stricter economic sanctions and fewer compromises in nuclear negotiations.
• Former President Donald Trump is tightening control over the Republican party following his decisive win in the Iowa caucuses.
• US and Chinese officials will meet in Beijing this week for another round of financial talks.
• Poll of the Day: Trump maintains a sizeable lead over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, despite a late polling surge.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily180124.pdf