MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump To Call For Unity At GOP Convention

Executive Summary:

• The presidential election campaign is in the midst of another major re-calibration following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13.
• Two immediate political consequences are likely a polling surge for Trump amongst his soft base and a temporary reprieve for President Biden from the Democrat rebellion against his candidacy.
• The senior most Republicans and Democrats called for Americans to step away from incendiary rhetoric, but some Republicans offered more inflammatory statements which tracked closely with conspiratorial elements of the social media discourse.
• The number of lawmakers who have publicly called on Biden to step down remained static over the weekend, but the underlying issues with Biden’s candidacy remain unresolved. Biden’s support continues to hold up with progressives, but moderates offered a blueprint for transferring the Democratic Party nomination.
• The Republican National Convention kicks off today, where Trump will be formally anointed as the Republican Party presidential nominee. Trump will close the Convention with a keynote address on Thursday evening. He is expected to announce his VP selection on Wednesday.
• The signals from Trump’s campaign point towards an uncharacteristically magnanimous Trump appearance at the convention, likely a politically intelligent strategy that can capitalise on the goodwill he is experiencing.
• Poll of the Day: Trump continues to slowly increase his polling advantage.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily150724.pdf