Free Trial

MNI POLITICAL RISK – US Elections Weekly: Comparing Models

US

The Economist and 538 released their 2024 presidential election models this week. The 538 model forecasts a 'toss-up' but The Economist gives Trump a relatively strong lead. Inside we provide a summary of what they show and analysis of how methodologies can throw up different forecasts.

  • If Democrats are going to retain the Senate, they will likely need to at least two split-ticket wins. New polling data from Ohio shows that Democrats may outperform Biden in key races.
  • A special election in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District delivered a major upside surprise for Democrats that has echoes of a string of special elections in 2022 which foreshadowed a Democratic Party overperformance at the 2022 midterm elections.
  • Also inside: A roundup of polling and prediction market data from the week.

Full article: US Elections Weekly

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.