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MNI POLITICAL RISK – US Elections Weekly: Comparing Models

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The Economist and 538 released their 2024 presidential election models this week. The 538 model forecasts a 'toss-up' but The Economist gives Trump a relatively strong lead. Inside we provide a summary of what they show and analysis of how methodologies can throw up different forecasts.

  • If Democrats are going to retain the Senate, they will likely need to at least two split-ticket wins. New polling data from Ohio shows that Democrats may outperform Biden in key races.
  • A special election in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District delivered a major upside surprise for Democrats that has echoes of a string of special elections in 2022 which foreshadowed a Democratic Party overperformance at the 2022 midterm elections.
  • Also inside: A roundup of polling and prediction market data from the week.

Full article: US Elections Weekly

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The Economist and 538 released their 2024 presidential election models this week. The 538 model forecasts a 'toss-up' but The Economist gives Trump a relatively strong lead. Inside we provide a summary of what they show and analysis of how methodologies can throw up different forecasts.

  • If Democrats are going to retain the Senate, they will likely need to at least two split-ticket wins. New polling data from Ohio shows that Democrats may outperform Biden in key races.
  • A special election in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District delivered a major upside surprise for Democrats that has echoes of a string of special elections in 2022 which foreshadowed a Democratic Party overperformance at the 2022 midterm elections.
  • Also inside: A roundup of polling and prediction market data from the week.

Full article: US Elections Weekly