MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: First Debate Preview

Executive Summary:

• The first of two 2024 presidential elections will take place on June 27. The debate will be broadcast by CNN and hosted by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The debate was negotiated directly by CNN and the Biden and Trump campaigns, ducking the Commission on Presidential Debates for the first time since 1988.
• The debate will be the most widely watched event of the campaign so far. It will provide the first real opportunity to win votes from the small group of undecided voters who will ultimately determine the winner in November, many of whom may be tuning into the politics of the race for the first time.
• We provide a preview of the debate, some of the strategies likely to be employed by President Biden and former President Donald Trump, and analyse what a poor performance could mean for Biden's campaign. Also inside: A round-up of key polling news from the week and the status of election models and prediction markets.

Please find the full article attached below:

MNIPOLRISKElectionsWeeklyFirstDebatePreview .pdf