MNI POLITICAL RISK- US Elections Weekly: Harris' Debate Bounce

Executive Summary:

• There appears to have been a slight move in the polls towards Vice President Kamala Harris following her strong debate performance against former President Donald Trump.
• The most eye-catching poll of the week came from the New York Times/Siena College, showing Harris leading by four points in Pennsylvania but tied in the national vote. The Times described the results as, “a bit of a puzzle,” as it went against a long-held assumption that Harris is likely to underperform Trump in the northern swing states compared to the popular vote.
• Democrats are optimistic that a major scandal in North Carolina could drag Trump in a crucial state.
• A new survey from renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer showed Harris has, “significantly narrowed the presidential race in Iowa.”
• Trump and his allies are making a last-ditch effort to revoke Nebraska’s unusual Electoral College allocation.
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) super PAC has dropped a huge amount of money on upcoming ad buys for battleground Senate races.
• Harris retains her 2-4% lead across the various national polling averages. The key swing states are all within 1 percentage point.
• Harris' favourability rating has turned positive for the first time since July 2021.
• Split Ticket has published its first presidential election forecast since Biden's withdrawal, giving Harris a 62% chance of winning.
• Nate Silver’s election forecast model has converged back to a 50-50 race, after several weeks of leaning towards Trump.
• All the major betting and prediction markets have ticked up in favour of Harris since last week.

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