MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: Models Favour Harris

Executive Summary:

• Vice President Kamala Harris unveiled a fully fleshed out policy platform for the first time. Harris’ camp will hope that the platform launch can address voter concerns that Harris has fewer economic solutions than former President Donald Trump.
• Trump's Electoral College advantage, a deeply ingrained conventional wisdom of the Trump era, may be shrinking as Harris shows surprising strength in the Rust Belt relative to the national vote.
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is looking at several alternate routes to retaining the Senate without Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) winning his tough race in Montana.
• The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a “multi-million dollar” investment on TV ads in Florida and Texas – two large states that require significant investments to reach voters but are showing signs of being competitive this cycle.
• Republicans are leading Democrats on a range of metrics that have historically been “highly predictive” of presidential election outcomes.
• Harris has slightly improved on her national polling advantage and ticked up in the three key northern swing states.
• Nate Silver’s forecast model is slightly more bullish on Harris this week, rising to a 58% implied probability of a Harris win.
• Inside: A full round-up of polls, prediction market data, and notable news from the week.

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