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MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: Polls Remain Static

Weekly snapshot of the US elections.
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Executive summary:

  • Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) and Senator JD Vance (R-OH) faced off this week in the sole vice-presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. While snap polls showed an even contest, pundits generally agreed that Vance edged the debate on style, a position we took in our reaction to the debate.
  • Overall, we agree the conventional wisdom that a vice-presidential debate doesn’t move the needle dial on a presidential election race will remain true this year.
  • As polling has been more or less static since the Harris-Biden switch, any movement before Election Day may depend on how the administration reacts to a series of unfolding crises.
  • There has been more data suggesting that Harris is closing the gap to Trump on handling inflation.
  • The GOP is firmly favoured to flip control of the Senate but the House of Representatives outlook is less clear.
  • Inside: A roundup of polls, election models, prediction market data, and notable news from the week. 

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly

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Executive summary:

  • Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) and Senator JD Vance (R-OH) faced off this week in the sole vice-presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. While snap polls showed an even contest, pundits generally agreed that Vance edged the debate on style, a position we took in our reaction to the debate.
  • Overall, we agree the conventional wisdom that a vice-presidential debate doesn’t move the needle dial on a presidential election race will remain true this year.
  • As polling has been more or less static since the Harris-Biden switch, any movement before Election Day may depend on how the administration reacts to a series of unfolding crises.
  • There has been more data suggesting that Harris is closing the gap to Trump on handling inflation.
  • The GOP is firmly favoured to flip control of the Senate but the House of Representatives outlook is less clear.
  • Inside: A roundup of polls, election models, prediction market data, and notable news from the week. 

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly