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MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: Post-Debate Swing?

Weekly snapshot of the US elections.

Political RiskPolitical Market News

Executive Summary:

  • Vice President Kamala Harris was widely judged to have won the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump. She controlled the tone of the debate and effectively baited Trump into defensive responses that whiffed on Harris’ political vulnerabilities.
  • A New York Times/Siena College survey released before the debate exposed several potential weaknesses in Harris' campaign: Only 40% of voters view her as the candidate of change, voters don’t buy her as a centrist, and voters want to hear more about her and her policies.
  • If the best metric for measuring Harris’ debate performance is how successfully she addressed those weaknesses, she may not have done enough to move the needle.
  • High-quality polls based on rigorous fieldwork will be released by Sunday, providing a clearer picture of how Harris’ debate win has influenced the race.
  • Sabato's Crystal Ball opined on the perennial issue of pollsters underestimating Trump's support: “There are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.”
  • The Montana Senate race appears to be drifting away from Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) and with it, Democrats' chances of retaining the upper chamber.
  • Election forecast models continue to diverge slightly, with 538, DDHQ, and the Economist all showing a toss-up race that leans marginally towards Harris, and Nate Silver's model bullish on Trump.
  • Betting markets made two major moves this week, first a bullish pivot on Trump, and then a reversal following Harris’ debate win.
  • Inside: A round-up of polling, key election news, and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below:

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Executive Summary:

  • Vice President Kamala Harris was widely judged to have won the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump. She controlled the tone of the debate and effectively baited Trump into defensive responses that whiffed on Harris’ political vulnerabilities.
  • A New York Times/Siena College survey released before the debate exposed several potential weaknesses in Harris' campaign: Only 40% of voters view her as the candidate of change, voters don’t buy her as a centrist, and voters want to hear more about her and her policies.
  • If the best metric for measuring Harris’ debate performance is how successfully she addressed those weaknesses, she may not have done enough to move the needle.
  • High-quality polls based on rigorous fieldwork will be released by Sunday, providing a clearer picture of how Harris’ debate win has influenced the race.
  • Sabato's Crystal Ball opined on the perennial issue of pollsters underestimating Trump's support: “There are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.”
  • The Montana Senate race appears to be drifting away from Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) and with it, Democrats' chances of retaining the upper chamber.
  • Election forecast models continue to diverge slightly, with 538, DDHQ, and the Economist all showing a toss-up race that leans marginally towards Harris, and Nate Silver's model bullish on Trump.
  • Betting markets made two major moves this week, first a bullish pivot on Trump, and then a reversal following Harris’ debate win.
  • Inside: A round-up of polling, key election news, and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below:

Keep reading...Show less