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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: Post-Debate Swing?
- Vice President Kamala Harris was widely judged to have won the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump. She controlled the tone of the debate and effectively baited Trump into defensive responses that whiffed on Harris’ political vulnerabilities.
- A New York Times/Siena College survey released before the debate exposed several potential weaknesses in Harris' campaign: Only 40% of voters view her as the candidate of change, voters don’t buy her as a centrist, and voters want to hear more about her and her policies.
- If the best metric for measuring Harris’ debate performance is how successfully she addressed those weaknesses, she may not have done enough to move the needle.
- High-quality polls based on rigorous fieldwork will be released by Sunday, providing a clearer picture of how Harris’ debate win has influenced the race.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball opined on the perennial issue of pollsters underestimating Trump's support: “There are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.”
- The Montana Senate race appears to be drifting away from Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) and with it, Democrats' chances of retaining the upper chamber.
- Election forecast models continue to diverge slightly, with 538, DDHQ, and the Economist all showing a toss-up race that leans marginally towards Harris, and Nate Silver's model bullish on Trump.
- Betting markets made two major moves this week, first a bullish pivot on Trump, and then a reversal following Harris’ debate win.
- Inside: A round-up of polling, key election news, and prediction market data.
Full article: US Elections Weekly
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.