MNI POLITICAL RISK - Whip Count Tight Ahead Of 'Minibus' Vote

Executive Summary:

• The House of Representatives is expected to hold a vote at around 11:00 ET 15:00 GMT on the USD$1.2 trillion ‘minibus’ appropriations package which covers about three-quarters of federal discretionary spending.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will hold the vote under suspension of rules meaning the package will require a two-thirds bipartisan majority. The prevailing view is that the package will pass, but it will be tight. As expected, the conservative House Freedom Caucus is campaigning aggressively against the package. There are also likely to be a handful of ‘no’ votes from progressive Democrats in protestation of Israel aid and absence of funding for UNRWA.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Israel today to urge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the War Cabinet to rethink a IDF ground operation in Rafah. The meetings come ahead of a United Nations Security Council vote on a US-drafted ceasefire resolution.
• New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) could begin seizing former President Donald Trump’s New York assets as soon as Monday.
• Democrats hold a huge cash advantage over the GOP across nearly every level of national politics, reflecting weak fundraising and a campaign pot which is being drained by Trump’s legal fees.
• US business leaders gather in Beijing on Sunday for the China Development Forum.
• The DOJ filed a lawsuit yesterday against the tech giant Apple, alleging the company has violated anti-trust laws.
• Poll of the Day: President Biden’s approval rating is above 40% for the first time since October.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily220324.pdf