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MNI Preview: September: Upside risks to 75bp; reinvestments may end

RIKSBANK
  • We would be inclined to expect a 75bp rather than a 100bp hike for two related reasons: first the passthrough is faster in Sweden to households than in most other markets (due to the higher proportion of mortgages with shorter-term fixes). Second, the Swedish housing market is already looking more vulnerable than other property markets across the developed world.
  • With Floden already having said that he could have favoured an end to reinvestments in Q4 at the June meeting and Skingsley having left the Executive Board, we think there is a good chance that the Riksbank decides to stop bond reinvestments in Q4-22.
  • We have read through and summarized 14 sell side previews, with 12/14 looking for a 75bp hike (the remaining two look for a 100bp hike). While OIS markets price around a 60% probability of a 100bp hike (with 75bp fully priced).
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