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MNI Projects CPI Cooling to +7.21%, Evidence for Softer Core

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

We have now received state data that equates to 88.0% weighting of the national German CPI print (due at 1300 BST / 1400 CET).

  • MNI calculations estimate that CPI rose by +0.47% m/m, and by +7.21% y/y. This is based on the published index values for available state data. This implies a 0.2pp deceleration on the annualised figure from +7.4% y/y in March, as German headline inflation distances itself further from the October/November peak of +8.8% y/y.
  • For both m/m and y/y, our estimate is around 0.1pp below the current Bloomberg consensus forecast.
  • Note: this is in relation to the national CPI print - not the HICP print (which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets). The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
  • Today's state data points towards a marginal reduction in core CPI for Germany, after having risen to a fresh euro-era high of +5.8% y/y in March. Core CPI data excluding both energy and food is only available for six states which account for 50% of the headline index. These all saw core CPI easing by 0.1 to 0.3pp on the headline annualised prints, with core CPI remaining expansive albeit softer at +0.5 to +0.6% m/m.


M/MApr (reported)Mar (reported)Difference
North Rhine Westphalia0.5%0.6%-0.1%
Hesse0.3%0.8%-0.5%
Bavaria0.4%0.7%-0.3%
Brandenburg0.4%1.0%-0.6%
Baden-Wuerttemberg0.5%0.9%-0.4%
Berlin0.7%0.9%-0.2%
Saxony 0.3%0.9%-0.6%
Rhineland-Palatinate0.4%0.8%-0.4%
Lower Saxony0.4%0.9%-0.5%
Saxony-Anhalt0.3%0.9%-0.6%
Weighted average: 0.47%for 88.0%


Y/YApr (reported)Mar (reported)Difference
North Rhine Westphalia6.8%6.9%-0.1%
Hesse6.9%7.1%-0.2%
Bavaria7.2%7.2%0.0%
Brandenburg7.6%7.8%-0.2%
Baden-Wuerttemberg7.3%7.8%-0.5%
Berlin7.5%7.7%-0.2%
Saxony7.6%8.3%-0.2%
Rhineland-Palatinate7.1%7.4%-0.3%
Lower Saxony7.5%7.8%-0.3%
Saxony-Anhalt7.3%7.9%-0.6%
Weighted average: 7.21%for 88.0%
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