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MNI Projects CPI to Cool to +7.39% in March Flash

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

We have now received state data that equates to 88.0% weighting of the national German CPI print.

  • MNI calculations estimate that CPI rose by +0.77% m/m, and a +7.39% y/y increase. This is based on the published index values for available state data. This implies a 1.3pp deceleration on the annualised figure from +8.7% y/y in February, as German headline inflation distances itself further from the October/November peak of +8.8% y/y.
  • For both m/m and y/y, our forecast is around 0.1pp above the current Bloomberg consensus forecast which looks for +0.7% m/m and +7.3% y/y.
  • Note: this is in relation to the national CPI print - not the HICP print (which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets). The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
  • This data follows a downside surprise in Spanish flash CPI this morning, which came in at +3.3% y/y (+3.1% y/y HICP).
M/MMar (reported)Feb (reported)DifferenceWeighting 2023
North Rhine Westphalia0.6%1.0%-0.4%21.10%
Hesse0.8%0.6%0.2%7.70%
Bavaria0.7%0.8%-0.1%16.90%
Brandenburg1.0%0.8%0.2%2.90%
Baden Wuert.0.9%0.8%0.1%14.10%
Berlin0.9%0.9%0.0%4.00%
Saxony 0.9%0.8%0.1%4.60%
Rhineland-Palatinate0.8%0.6%0.2%4.90%
Lower Saxony0.9%0.3%0.6%9.40%
Saxony-Anhalt0.9%0.8%0.1%2.40%
Weighted average: +0.77% M/Mfor 88.0%
Y/YMar (reported)Feb (reported)DifferenceWeighting 2023
North Rhine Westphalia6.9%8.5%-1.6%21.10%
Hesse7.1%8.3%-1.2%7.70%
Bavaria7.2%8.8%-1.6%16.90%
Brandenburg7.8%8.7%-0.9%2.90%
Baden Wuert.7.8%8.7%-0.9%14.10%
Berlin7.7%9.1%-1.4%4.00%
Saxony 8.3%9.2%-0.2%4.60%
Rhineland-Palatinate7.4%8.4%-1.0%4.90%
Lower Saxony7.8%8.7%-0.9%9.40%
Saxony-Anhalt7.9%8.9%-1.0%2.40%
Weighted average: + 7.39% Y/Yfor 88.0%
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