-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
-
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI Projects CPI to Cool to +8.55% y/y in December
We have now received state data that equates to 88.1% weighting of the national German CPI print.
- MNI calculations estimate that CPI fell -0.82% m/m, which would be equivalent to a +8.55% y/y increase. This is based on the published index values for available state data.
- The Bloomberg consensus is for inflation to remain more elevated, falling at a softer -0.6% m/m to hover around a higher +9.0% y/y. This implies a 1.0pp deceleration on the annualised figure, as German headline inflation distances itself further from the October peak of +10.4% y/y.
- Note: this is in relation to the national CPI print - not the HICP print (which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets). The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
- This data alongside the downside surprise in Spanish flash data adds to evidence that a softer-than-expected December HICP for the eurozone aggregate is likely. Consensus is currently looking for -0.1% m/m and +9.5% y/y.
Y/Y Dec (Reported) Nov (Reported) Difference Weighting North Rhine Westphalia 8.7% 10.4% -1.7% 21.70% Hesse 8.1% 9.7% -1.6% 7.70% Bavaria 9.2% 10.9% -1.7% 16.80% Brandenburg 9.1% 10.5% -1.4% 2.60% Baden Wuert. 8.5% 9.6% -1.1% 14.10% Berlin 7.9% 9.1% -1.2% 3.90% Saxony 8.7% 9.9% -0.2% 4.40% Rhineland-Palatinate 8.4% 9.8% -1.4% 5.10% Lower Saxony 8.3% 10.0% -1.7% 9.40% Saxony-Anhalt 8.7% 10.5% -1.8% 2.40% Weighted average: 8.55% for 88.1% M/M Dec (Reported) Nov (Reported) Difference Weighting North Rhine Westphalia -1.0% -0.8% -0.2% 21.70% Hesse -0.7% 0.4% -1.1% 7.70% Bavaria -1.1% -0.3% -0.8% 16.80% Brandenburg -0.6% -0.5% -0.1% 2.60% Baden Wuert. -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% 14.10% Berlin -0.6% -0.9% 0.3% 3.90% Saxony -0.6% -0.3% -0.3% 4.40% Rhineland-Palatinate -0.7% -0.2% -0.5% 5.10% Lower Saxony -0.9% -0.6% -0.3% 9.40% Saxony-Anhalt -1.1% -0.3% -0.8% 2.40% Weighted average: -0.82% for 88.1%
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.