MNI Projects Soft National CPI M/M Print, But Core Disinflation Slow

From state-level data that equates to 89.1% weighting of the national March flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 BST / 14:00 CET), MNI estimates that national CPI (non-HICP print) rose by 0.4% m/m and 2.2% y/y,

• Analyst consensus currently stands at 0.5% M/M and 2.2% Y/Y (which does not change when considering only those analysts who submitted both monthly and annual forecasts).
• Current tracking of core CPI (ex-energy and food, based on 50% of the national index) implies 3.3% Y/Y (vs 3.4% in February) and 0.6-0.7% M/M, per our calculations.
• A reminder that coming into today's release, analysts noted that calendar effects from the early Easter weekend could be most prominent in Germany, which added uncertainty to the core and services prints.
• Package holiday prices appear to be tracking at 4.3% Y/Y and 6.8% M/M. For context, Barclays had forecasted an 8.4% M/M German package holidays reading.
• We will provide a follow-up bullet looking at the drivers of the stickiness in due course.
• This is based on the published index values for available state data. The data implies readings slightly below consensus on an annual basis
• Note: These estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.