MNI Publishes Election Preview

In a decision that will have significant repercussions for domestic politics, as well as on the wider European continent, President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap legislative election to take place on 30 June and 7 July. Macron called the election after the right-wing nationalist Rassembelement National (National Rally, RN) won a comfortable victory in France’s election to the European Parliament on 9 June, saying in a national address that “I’ve decided to give you back the choice of our parliamentary future through the vote. I am therefore dissolving the National Assembly.”

• In this preview, we have an explainer of the somewhat complex electoral system used for the National Assembly; outline the main political alliances and parties contesting the vote; provide analysis of various election scenarios with assigned probabilities; write on the outlook for France's financial and credit markets and the country's power and energy sectors; assemble a chartpack of the latest opinion polling and betting market predictions for the election; and select the key views from a host of analysts regarding the implications of the contest.

MNIPOLITICALRISK-FranceElectionPreview.pdf