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MNI RBA Review - December 2023: On Hold, Watching & Waiting

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The RBA left rates at 4.35%, as expected, at its last meeting for 2023. The central bank retained its tightening bias with the final guidance paragraph unchanged word-for-word. It is in wait-and-see-mode, especially for the Q4 CPI data.
  • Some of its November inflation concerns were restated in this month’s statement but there was nothing mentioned to suggest that they have become less worrying. If anything, there hasn’t been enough information yet to determine if they have dissipated. Thus, more emphasis has been put on upcoming CPI releases.
  • The key data point ahead of the February 6 decision is likely to be Q4 CPI data on January 31 and currently there is little room in the projections for an upside inflation surprise. The meeting will also include updated staff forecasts, which will now be published, including the Statement on Monetary Policy, with the meeting statement and the decision will be followed an hour later by a press conference.

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RBA Review - December 2023.pdf

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