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MNI RBA Review - February 2023: +25bp, More Hikes On The Way

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The RBA hiked rates 25bp to 3.35%, as was widely expected. This brought the cash rate to above the mid-point of the central bank’s estimated range for neutral. The statement was more hawkish and made it clear that rates need to rise further and by more than 25bp, as inflation worries came to the fore.
  • A hike in March now seems a given but there is a question whether the Board will pause in April and hike again in May after the Q1 CPI data on April 26 or hike at both meetings bringing rates to 4.1%. An April break would require very clear communication that the cash rate has not yet reached its peak.
  • From the references in the meeting statement, it seems that the RBA's forecasts are broadly unchanged compared to November. Inflation is expected to be "around 3%" in H1 2025 but there was no mention of the trimmed mean or wages projections, which will be included in Friday's Statement on Monetary Policy.

Click to view full review:

RBA Review - February 2023.pdf

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