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MNI RBNZ Preview – May 2021: No Policy Shift Yet

MNI Point of View:

  • We expect the RBNZ to leave all of the main monetary policy parameters unchanged on Wednesday, which should be coupled with upgrades to economic forecasts vis-à-vis February MPS. In particular, the MPC will likely acknowledge that their projection of the unemployment rate is now outdated and the labour market is tighter than they had anticipated. The MPC will probably strike a more hawkish note than in February, yet treading with caution and retaining maximum optionality will remain the RBNZ's favoured approach.
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