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MNI RBNZ Review - February 2022: Kiwis That Turn Into Hawks

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The RBNZ raised the OCR by 25bp in a "finely balanced" decision between the chosen course of action and a 50bp hike, as they acknowledged the risk of inflation becoming more persistent.
  • The notable lift to the OCR track was interpreted as a hawkish signal, with the terminal level of the policy rate now seen comfortably above the neutral value and most earlier predictions.
  • The Reserve Bank also unveiled their QT plans, noting that they are looking to unwind their LSAP holdins through bond maturities and managed sales at the rate of NZ$5bn/fiscal year.

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