MNI REALITY CHECK: Cautious September Hiring by US Employers

U.S. payrolls growth should remain strong in September, though employers were cautious in hiring as an effective Covid-19 vaccine, further fiscal aid for households, and a nearing presidential election all hung in the balance, recruiters and industry experts told MNI.

The 868,000 gain in the Bloomberg forecast would still shatter pre-crisis records, but would amount to little more than half of the 1.4 million jobs gained in August that was itself a slowdown from July's 1.7 million. If the forecast is met, just over half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April will have been recouped.

"We're operating on a different scale," said Josh Wright, chief economist at Wrightside Advisors in New York. "That's way better than any kind of 'normal' month but it's a pretty rapid deterioration in terms of jobs rebounds."

Part of any deterioration could come from a slowdown in government payrolls growth, which accounted for 25% of job gains in August, he said, after 238,000 temporary Census workers were hired in August. The Census Bureau this week said it would wrap up its 2020 Census operations on October 5.

Wright said employers remain cautious in bringing on new staff as fiscal support from the government dwindles and the November 3 presidential election creeps closer. Covid-19 case counts also continue to rise.

"It's clear that employers are hesitant to really commit to scaling up and making up all of the jobs that have been lost earlier in the year," he said. "They're positioning themselves for the upside, but they're not committing to the upside."

TEMP JOBS

Temporary hiring jumped again in September with employers hesitant to offer permanent full-time positions, but confident enough to "put their toe back into the water," said Tom Gimbel, founder and CEO of the LaSalle Network, a staffing firm in Chicago.

"That's a very good sign going into the end of the year that companies are willing to do that," he said.

Gimbel said job seekers in September were more willing than in months past to accept temporary or lower wage positions, likely due to the expiration of an added weekly USD600 to regular state unemployment benefits at the end of July.

But many workers are still reluctant to reenter the workforce, he said, citing health concerns.

"There's still a fear of going back into the workplace," said John Calabrese, an Express Employment Professionals franchise owner in Utica, New York. "It's still more difficult than it was six months ago to fill some of these positions due to the unwillingness to accept them."

Calabrese said his staffing business still saw "slow and steady growth each week" in September over August, particularly in placement within the insurance and health care industries.

NO SEPTEMBER FALL

Overall, September should be a positive month for employment gains, said Julia Pollak, a labor economist at online jobs marketplace ZipRecruiter, as total available jobs on ZipRecruiter leapt in September after dipping at the end of August.

"The average number of openings in September at any one point has been 9.5% higher than in August," she said in an interview. "That's very encouraging."

Pollak said the jobs recovery should continue even as disagreements about further federal aid have caused gridlock in Washington and Covid-19 infection rates remain stubbornly high, pointing to a "sort of a gravitational pull toward normal despite all of the disruption."