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Free AccessMNI REALITY CHECK: Cheaper Pork To Push China's Apr CPI Lower
By Wanxia Lin
BEIJING (MNI) - China's consumer price inflation rate is likely to slow
further in April as supply constraints on some foodstuffs eased and demand for
transportation and services remained depressed, despite a gradual reopening of
the economy, industry insiders told MNI.
Key points from their comments ahead of the May 12 data release:
**Pork prices fell for eight consecutive weeks by end-April on excess
supply
**Vegetable and fruit prices fell slightly from March
**Fuel prices remained low on slow recovery of demand
LI BING, ANALYST WITH BEIJING-BASED COMMODITIES CONSULTANCY BAICHUAN
INFORMATION: "Pork prices, the main inflation driver over the past year, fell to
CNY41.33 per kilo by the end of the month from CNY44.5 per kilo in early April
after the central government released 80,000 tonnes of frozen meat from the
national reserves."
This saw pork prices in large-scale supermarkets nationwide monitored by
Baichuan decline 7% m/m from March, although they were still 106% higher than a
year earlier, she said.
"The current excess supply may continue to weigh on price before a wider
opening of restaurants and schools."
LI QIANG, CHIEF ANALYST AT SHANGHAI JC INTELLIGENCE CO:
"The increased release of pork reserves and imports of pork have pushed up
supply ... And around 15-20 million pigs which had been kept for breeding
flooded into the slaughter market between March to May, which is a huge amount."
"Though pork prices fell for eight consecutive weeks by the end of April,
the downward trend may not continue," he said, noting that the supply would dip
in the short-term given that pork imports from the U.S. were interrupted in
early April due to the pandemic.
OWNER OF TAIXIAN, A FRUIT AND VEGETABLE WHOLESALER:
"The price of vegetables and fruits in April was lower than in March as the
epidemic eased ... The market is expected to return to normal in May."
DU JUAN, SENIOR ANALYST AT YIMUTIAN, A B2B WEBSITE MATCHING FARMERS WITH
BUYERS:
"The wholesale prices of vegetables and fruits monitored by Yimutian fell
1% and 6% from the previous month as transportation eased, but on a yearly
basis, vegetable prices rose 15% while fruit prices fell 15% from a year
earlier."
"Normally around this time, the price of vegetables would see a large
decline as the weather warms up, but the decline in April this year was not
significant, indicating that the epidemic was still weighing on the market."
SANG XIAO, ANALYST AT ZHONGYU INFORMATION, COMMODITIES ADVISORY BASED IN
SHANDONG PROVINCE:
"Though the government stopped lowering the retail prices of domestic
gasoline and diesel in April after global oil prices slumped, pushing China's
floor price to $40 a barrel, wholesale fuel prices declined on the slow pick up
in demand."
The average monthly wholesale PetroChina and Sinopec gasoline price in 30
major provinces fell by CNY491 to CNY 5,541 per tonne from March, while that of
diesel decreased by CNY325 to CNY 5,487.
--April CPI data will be published Tuesday May 12, with expectations for
the annual rate to dip to 3.7% from 4.4% in March. The annualised rate peaked at
5.4% in January.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: wanxia.lin@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3829; email: jason.webb@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$Q$$$,MT$$$$,MX$$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.