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Free AccessMNI REALITY CHECK: Lockdown To Trigger Record UK Sales Fall
--Industry Groups Expect April M/M Dip in Supermarket Sales
By Laurie Laird
LONDON (MNI) - UK April retail sales data could deliver a nasty downside
surprise, industry insiders told MNI, with many seeing a possibility the
coronavirus-driven shutdown could trigger a larger fall than the 15% m/m plunge
predicted by City economists.
Here are the key points from their comments:
**April likely to see a record fall in total retail sales.
**Clothing sales will likely slump, with physical stores closed and
stay-at-home consumers not looking for new outfits.
**Food sales are likely to have fallen from March levels, as consumers
whittle down stockpiles or tighten belts as incomes are squeezed.
**UK April retail sales data to be published May 22 at 0700BST
HELEN DICKINSON, CHIEF EXECUTIVE AT THE BRITISH RETAIL CONSORTIUM:
"With lockdown measures in full swing, April saw a record fall in retail
sales."
"Food sales were disappointing, with the virus preventing large family
gatherings and turning Easter into a more modest affair."
ANDREW GOODACRE, CHIEF EXECUTIVE AT INDEPENDENT RETAILERS' ASSOCIATION:
"That expected fall seems low (market median m/m decline). How do they work
it out?"
"People will not have spent as much as they usually spend ... and there's a
lot of money in people's accounts. The challenge for retailers now is getting
that money out of people's accounts."
RAIN NEWTON-SMITH, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT THE CBI:
"It's no surprise that the lockdown is hitting retailers hard. Two fifths
have shut up shop completely for now. And sales of groceries and other
essentials also fell, suggesting household may have been dipping into stockpiles
built up prior to the lockdown or tightening their belts more generally as
incomes take a hit."
"Food stores may provide an even bigger hit, with most industry groups
reporting a significant slowdown from a stockpiling frenzy in March."
FRASER MCKEVITT, KANTAR:
"(Purchases of) clothes, food bought on the go and general merchandise will
have been considerably lower, so for some retailers, the overall picture will be
more modest."
- "(High street) clothing and footwear sales are likely to extend the
plunge suffered in March, as retailers were shuttered only in the final week or
so days of the collection period in March, but all of April."
PAUL MARTIN: UK HEAD OF RETAIL AT KPMG:
"Consumers have had little alternative but to log on, and online sales were
up nearly 60%. As you'd expect with consumers staying at home, the focus has
been on home-related goods, as well as trying to keep entertained."
ANDY MULCAHY, STRATEGY DIRECTOR AT IMRG:
Looking ahead, "they're talking about re-opening the shops ... but I don't
know if people are going to go. I don't know if people will feel that
comfortable."
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3829; email: jason.webb@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$,MT$$$$,MX$$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.