MNI REALITY CHECK: Lockdown To Trigger Record UK Sales Fall

--Industry Groups Expect April M/M Dip in Supermarket Sales 

By Laurie Laird

     LONDON (MNI) - UK April retail sales data could deliver a nasty downside

surprise, industry insiders told MNI, with many seeing a possibility the

coronavirus-driven shutdown could trigger a larger fall than the 15% m/m plunge

predicted by City economists.

     Here are the key points from their comments:

     **April likely to see a record fall in total retail sales.

     **Clothing sales will likely slump, with physical stores closed and

stay-at-home consumers not looking for new outfits.

     **Food sales are likely to have fallen from March levels, as consumers

whittle down stockpiles or tighten belts as incomes are squeezed.

     **UK April retail sales data to be published May 22 at 0700BST

     HELEN DICKINSON, CHIEF EXECUTIVE AT THE BRITISH RETAIL CONSORTIUM:

     "With lockdown measures in full swing, April saw a record fall in retail

sales."

     "Food sales were disappointing, with the virus preventing large family

gatherings and turning Easter into a more modest affair."

     ANDREW GOODACRE, CHIEF EXECUTIVE AT INDEPENDENT RETAILERS' ASSOCIATION:

     "That expected fall seems low (market median m/m decline). How do they work

it out?"

     "People will not have spent as much as they usually spend ... and there's a

lot of money in people's accounts. The challenge for retailers now is getting

that money out of people's accounts."

     RAIN NEWTON-SMITH, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT THE CBI:

     "It's no surprise that the lockdown is hitting retailers hard. Two fifths

have shut up shop completely for now. And sales of groceries and other

essentials also fell, suggesting household may have been dipping into stockpiles

built up prior to the lockdown or tightening their belts more generally as

incomes take a hit."

     "Food stores may provide an even bigger hit, with most industry groups

reporting a significant slowdown from a stockpiling frenzy in March."

     FRASER MCKEVITT, KANTAR:

     "(Purchases of) clothes, food bought on the go and general merchandise will

have been considerably lower, so for some retailers, the overall picture will be

more modest."

     - "(High street) clothing and footwear sales are likely to extend the

plunge suffered in March, as retailers were shuttered only in the final week or

so days of the collection period in March, but all of April."

     PAUL MARTIN: UK HEAD OF RETAIL AT KPMG:

     "Consumers have had little alternative but to log on, and online sales were

up nearly 60%. As you'd expect with consumers staying at home, the focus has

been on home-related goods, as well as trying to keep entertained."

     ANDY MULCAHY, STRATEGY DIRECTOR AT IMRG:

     Looking ahead, "they're talking about re-opening the shops ... but I don't

know if people are going to go. I don't know if people will feel that

comfortable."

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3829; email: jason.webb@marketnews.com

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