Free Trial

MNI Riksbank Preview - March 2024: Rate Path Revision In Focus

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Riksbank are unanimously expected to leave the policy rate on hold at 4.00% in March.
  • Main focus will be on whether the door to a H1 2024 rate cut is opened any wider than at the February decision and if such a move is reflected in the updated rate path projection within the March Monetary Policy Report.
  • The MNI Markets Team expects the updated rate path to indicate that rates will most likely be cut in Q2 2024, with risks skewed towards the June meeting.
  • While a May rate cut cannot be fully ruled out at this stage, we still feel the Riksbank would prefer waiting for the ECB to cut rates first (most likely in June) before easing policy in Sweden, to protect the volatile SEK from an unwanted short-term depreciation.
  • Of the 15 previews in which analysts stated an opinion for the first cut, 9 look for a first cut in June, while 6 expect an earlier cut in May.
For our full preview including a summary of 19 analysts views, see the PDF link below:

MNI Riksbank Preview - 2024-03.pdf


To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.