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MNI Riksbank Preview - March 2024: Rate Path Revision In Focus

The Riksbank are unanimously expected to leave the policy rate on hold at 4.00% in March.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Riksbank are unanimously expected to leave the policy rate on hold at 4.00% in March.
  • Main focus will be on whether the door to a H1 2024 rate cut is opened any wider than at the February decision and if such a move is reflected in the updated rate path projection within the March Monetary Policy Report.
  • The MNI Markets Team expects the updated rate path to indicate that rates will most likely be cut in Q2 2024, with risks skewed towards the June meeting.
  • While a May rate cut cannot be fully ruled out at this stage, we still feel the Riksbank would prefer waiting for the ECB to cut rates first (most likely in June) before easing policy in Sweden, to protect the volatile SEK from an unwanted short-term depreciation.
  • Of the 15 previews in which analysts stated an opinion for the first cut, 9 look for a first cut in June, while 6 expect an earlier cut in May.
For our full preview including a summary of 19 analysts views, see the PDF link below:

MNI Riksbank Preview - 2024-03.pdf


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Riksbank are unanimously expected to leave the policy rate on hold at 4.00% in March.
  • Main focus will be on whether the door to a H1 2024 rate cut is opened any wider than at the February decision and if such a move is reflected in the updated rate path projection within the March Monetary Policy Report.
  • The MNI Markets Team expects the updated rate path to indicate that rates will most likely be cut in Q2 2024, with risks skewed towards the June meeting.
  • While a May rate cut cannot be fully ruled out at this stage, we still feel the Riksbank would prefer waiting for the ECB to cut rates first (most likely in June) before easing policy in Sweden, to protect the volatile SEK from an unwanted short-term depreciation.
  • Of the 15 previews in which analysts stated an opinion for the first cut, 9 look for a first cut in June, while 6 expect an earlier cut in May.
For our full preview including a summary of 19 analysts views, see the PDF link below:

MNI Riksbank Preview - 2024-03.pdf