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MNI Riksbank Preview: November 2023 - On A Knife Edge

RIKSBANK

The Riksbank’s final policy decision of the year is expected to be a very close call. The MNI Markets team believes a 25bps hike to 4.25% with no changes to the pace of QT is the most likely outcome.

  • Such a move would continue to support the weak SEK and ensure underlying inflation components continue their downward trajectory.
  • Of the analyst previews that we have read, 9/15 expect a 25bps hike. Consensus expectations are somewhat at odds with market pricing, with SEB’s estimates on Friday 17 Nov showing just 6bps priced (i.e. 24% chance of a 25bps hike).
Our full preview including a summary of 15 sell-side views and the Riksbank's communication since the September Monetary Policy Minutes can be found here.
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