MNI SARB Preview - September 2024: SARB To Start Cutting Rates
The South African Reserve Bank is expected to start its monetary easing cycle this week and will likely trim the repo rate by 25bp.
Executive Summary
- The SARB is widely expected to start its rate-cutting cycle.
- Most upside risks to the inflation outlook have receded.
- The meeting will conclude on the heels of the Fed's rate decision.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to fire the starting pistol on its monetary easing cycle, trimming the repo rate by 25bp and bringing it to 8.00%. Macroeconomic developments since the previous monetary policy meeting have been dovish on balance, upside risks to the inflation outlook have partially receded, while the Fed is widely expected to cut rates on the eve of the SARB meeting. The vote split may shed some light on the positionality of the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) collective sentiment on the dovish/hawkish spectrum amid the relative scarcity of communications from individual members.