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MNI SNB Preview - June 2024: On a Knife Edge

SNB decision could go either way, with markets seeing a 25bps cut more likely but analysts tilting slightly towards a policy rate hold on average.

Executive Summary:

  • SNB decision could go either way, with markets seeing a 25bps cut more likely but analysts tilting slightly towards a policy rate hold on average – while some underlying considerations might suggest a hold, there is high uncertainty around the decision
  • Inflation has accelerated in line with SNB expectations since the March meeting but remained well within the SNB price stability target range
  • CHF has appreciated again recently, partly reversing its weakness from earlier in the year, amid slightly hawkish commentary from SNB President Jordan on FX selling and the neutral interest rate
Full preview including summary of sell-side views here:

SNBPreview-2024-06.pdf

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Executive Summary:

  • SNB decision could go either way, with markets seeing a 25bps cut more likely but analysts tilting slightly towards a policy rate hold on average – while some underlying considerations might suggest a hold, there is high uncertainty around the decision
  • Inflation has accelerated in line with SNB expectations since the March meeting but remained well within the SNB price stability target range
  • CHF has appreciated again recently, partly reversing its weakness from earlier in the year, amid slightly hawkish commentary from SNB President Jordan on FX selling and the neutral interest rate
Full preview including summary of sell-side views here:

SNBPreview-2024-06.pdf

Keep reading...Show less