MNI SOURCES: Article 50 Extension Until June 30 A Risky Option

-EU Sources Say UK Seems Unlikely To Accept A Long Extension

By David Thomas

     BRUSSELS (MNI) - The EU could still grant Prime Minister Theresa May's

original request for an Article 50 extension until June 30 at an emergency April

10 summit, to give her time to gain approval for her Withdrawal Agreement and

avoid the UK's departure from the bloc without a deal, but legal risks are

daunting, according to a senior EU source.

     To grant such an extension, the EU may have to insist the UK would be out

of the bloc on June 30 with no prospect of further delay as it would not have

participated in May's European Parliament elections and so continued membership

would undermine the legitimacy of the new assembly.

     "We could theoretically say, yes you can have an extension until June 30

but it is not legally clean and it could be challenged," the source familiar

with the Brussels end of the Brexit talks told MNI.

     "We could say yes to June 30, but what if the deal is still not ratified by

then and the UK has to ask for a further extension? That's fine - but we would

have to ask, 'where are your MEPs?' There is no legal base for that situation,

it would require a treaty change and the last treaty change took two years."

     Another EU source conceded June 30 is an option: "you can't exclude it."

But he added: "it involves too much uncertainty, too much impact and too much

risk for member states."

     "The ECJ could rule that the parliament is not legitimate and we would have

to go through the whole process again."

     As a result, EU leaders may be more likely to push for a legally cleaner

solution involving a longer extension, even though this would also require

participation in EU elections, if it becomes clear that the EU-UK Withdrawal

Agreement cannot secure the UK parliament's approval in the coming week.

     --NO DEAL RISK

     The first source said it is still assumed that the leaders would approve

such an extension if needed rather than face the calamity of a no deal.

     "We still think that you could expect the EU to approve a further

extension. It's just not in our interest to have a no deal. Normally, I would

expect that reason would prevail."

     "But the longer and messier this process is in the UK, the greater the

risks. Among those political risks is possible UK participation in the European

elections and what kind of MEPs the UK would send to Brussels. They would be

part of the decision-making process and we don't know what alliances they might

form with other parties and groups."

     The second source also agreed that the EU27 would be likely to grant the UK

a long extension if it is sought, which he considered unlikely. France, Spain

and Netherlands have voiced concerns over extended UK membership, but they would

concede an extension in the end.

     "At the end of the day they would agree, but they just don't want to give

the impression it's a foregone conclusion."

     But the same source had strong doubts that the UK will accept a long

extension.

     "It seems politics trumps economics. The Brits don't want to participate in

the EU elections and that seems to trump concerns over the chaos of a no deal

Brexit."

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3829; email: jason.webb@marketnews.com

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