MNI:StatCan Delays Intl Goods Trade Release Due To US Shutdown

By Yali N'Diaye

     OTTAWA (MNI) - Statistics Canada said Thursday it is delaying the release

of the international merchandise trade until the U.S. Census Bureau resumes its

"normal operations."

     The next monthly report was due Feb. 5, 2019 for the month of December

2018.

     "Statistics Canada's present approach, following consultation with

stakeholders, is to delay the release of monthly international merchandise trade

statistics until the USCB resumes normal operations and a new joint release date

is negotiated with the USCB as per the data exchange agreement," the statistical

agency said in a statement.

     The U.S. and Canada publish international goods trade statistics the same

day each month. Without input from the U.S., Statistics Canada also had the

option to estimate the figures. However, 75% of Canada's goods exports go to the

U.S.

     Therefore, "trade statistics without Canada's exports to the United States

have limited use as a current economic indicator." It added that publishing an

estimate could risk providing "an inaccurate picture of Canada's trade with the

United States and misleading signals about total export trends."

     The quarterly balance of payments and GDP reports due on Feb. 28 and March

1, respectively, also rely on the merchandise trade statistics.

     "If international merchandise trade data are not received for December 2018

at the time these accounts are compiled, special estimates of Canadian exports

of goods to the United States will be produced for December," Statistics Canada

said, adding fourth quarter GDP will be released as scheduled.

     "Within the economic accounts context, combining an estimate of one month

of trade in goods data with two months of actual trade figures and other sources

of economic data reduces the risks associated with publishing an estimate for

December trade data on its own," it said.

     Should the U.S. government shutdown, which started Dec. 22, last for a

significantly longer period, Statistics Canada might be forced to estimate

monthly goods trade data, although it did not specifically say which route it

would take.

     "While Statistics Canada's current approach is to delay the publication of

monthly international merchandise trade data, other options may be considered

should the shutdown extend for a significant period of time," the statement

read.

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1 613 869-0916; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com

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