-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI STATE OF PLAY: SNB To Hike, With Risks Seen To The Upside
The Swiss National Bank is widely expected to raise its rate paid on sight deposits by 75bps on Thursday, with upward price pressures and recent Federal Reserve and European Central actions increasing chances of a hawkish surprise.
Core inflation has surged to 2% year-on-year, with headline annual inflation at 3.5% in August, up from June and July’s 29-year high of 3.4 % - well above the SNB’s 0-2% target range.
June’s decision to raise rates by half a point to -0.25% was taken after the SNB forecast inflation at 2.8 % for 2022, 1.9 % for 2023, and 1.6 % for 2024, and with chairman Thomas Jordan warning that more hikes could not be ruled out.
Jordan is expected to seize the opportunity to exit negative territory, having warned in his speech at Jackson Hole that recent inflation developments, while triggered to a large extent by supply shocks with a temporary impact, have spread to other categories of goods and services. There was a risk of underestimating the persistence of inflation, and “robust monetary policy decisions” were required, he said.
FED, ECB HIKES
Recent 75bp hikes by the Fed and the ECB and the prospect of more to come have further strengthened an increase of up to 100bps by the SNB - which will not meet again until December - either to do some frontloading of its own or to signal its willingness to react sooner.
A significant downward revision in the outlook for GDP growth this year - which the SNB put at 2.5 % in June - is also possible, but is unlikely to influence Thursday's decision. The latest Swiss Federation estimates slumped from 2.6 % in June to just 2 % this week, with projections for 2023 cut back to 1.1 %, and slowdowns in the U.S. and China cited as important factors. Nevertheless, experts have warned against going too far, too soon (MNI INTERVIEW: SNB Should Not Hike Too Much - Ex-Staffer)
With the franc trading at close to par with the dollar and the euro, a repetition of June’s assertion that the bank is willing to be active in the foreign exchange market “as necessary” could also be on the cards, with the possible addition of “forceful.”
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.