Free Trial

MNI Survey Of China Economic Forecasts

     BEIJING (MNI) - All figures y/y percentage change unless otherwise
specified.
                                                  New Loans        TSF
                             CPI   PPI        M2       July       July
                            July  July  End-July    CNY Bln    CNY Bln
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Median                       1.6   5.6       9.5        800       1075
High                         1.7   5.8      10.0       1100       1200
Low                          0.9   5.0       9.2        529        650
Mean                         1.5   5.5       9.5      795.6        997
No.                           19    19        19         19          9
Previous                     1.5   5.5       9.4       1540       1780
BAML                         1.5   5.4       9.5        780       1050
Bank of China                1.6   5.6       9.6        950         na
Bank of Comm                 1.4   5.6       9.7        800         na
CICC                     1.5-1.6   5.6      10.0    600-700  1000-1100
CITIC Sec                    1.4   5.4   9.6-9.8    600-700         na
Commerzbank                  1.6   5.6       9.4        529         na
Guotai Junan Securities      1.6   5.6       9.6        800       1200
Huachuang Sec                1.5   5.7       9.4        800         na
Huarong Sec                  1.6   5.6       9.6        800       1200
Huatai Sec                   1.6   5.6       9.5        900       1100
Industrial Bank              1.4   5.3       9.3        550        650
ING                          1.7   5.0       9.2       1100         na
Merchants Sec                1.5   5.6       9.3        800         na
Mizuho                       1.5   5.6       9.4        900         na
Nomura                       1.6   5.5       9.6        850        870
Shanghai Securities          0.9   5.5       9.4        600         na
Shenwan Hongyuan             1.5   5.5       9.4        900       1100
Standard
Chartered                    1.6   5.8       9.3        766        806
UBS                          1.6   5.5       9.6        700         na
                      Trade
                        Bal   Exports    Imports                          Retail
                     July $   July ($    July ($  Investment  Output       Sales
                        Bln        %)         %)    Jan-July    July        July
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Median                 46.4      10.8       17.5         8.6     7.0        10.7
High                   56.0      14.5       23.1         9.3     7.8        11.5
Low                    41.0       8.5       13.0         8.4     6.5        10.6
Mean                   46.9      11.2       17.7         8.6     7.0        10.9
No.                      17        19         19          19      18          19
Previous               42.8      11.3       17.2         8.6     7.6        11.0
BAML                   43.9      11.0       18.4         8.6     6.9        10.7
Bank of China            na      13.9       23.1         8.6     7.3        11.0
Bank of
Communications         49.0      10.0       13.0         8.4     6.5        10.7
CICC                     na      10.8       17.0         8.5     7.0        10.7
CITIC Sec              46.6      10.0       15.0         8.6     7.2        10.7
Commerzbank            46.1      14.5       22.8         8.6     6.8        10.7
Guotai Junan
Securities             56.0      10.1       17.5         9.0     7.0        11.3
Huachuang Sec          46.7      10.6       15.7         8.5     6.7        10.7
Huarong Sec            56.0      10.1       17.5         9.0     7.0        11.3
Huatai Sec             46.6      11.5       17.0         8.7     7.0        10.6
Industrial Bank        46.2      12.0       18.0         8.4     6.9        10.8
ING                    41.8      11.0       20.3         8.5     7.8        11.5
Merchants Sec          41.0       8.5       17.1         8.4     7.2        10.8
Mizuho                 48.6      10.0       15.0         8.6      na        11.0
Nomura                 44.8      10.5       17.0         8.5     7.0        10.7
Shanghai
Securities             44.0      13.5       20.9         9.3     7.0        10.6
Shenwan Hongyuan       48.0      13.0       18.0         8.6     6.8        10.8
Standard
Chartered              46.2      12.0       18.0         8.7     6.8        10.7
UBS                    46.4      10.0       15.0         8.7     7.3        11.0
     Note: The survey median is compiled solely from the forecasts listed above
and is not intended to represent a market consensus.
     July forex reserves data due for release on Aug. 7
     June trade data due for release on Aug. 8.
     June CPI, PPI due for release at 0930 local/0130 GMT Aug. 9.
     The Q2 GDP, industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment due
for release at 1000 local/0200 GMT on Aug 14.
     No scheduled release time for July money supply, bank loans and total
social financing.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: iris.ouyang@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAQDT$,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.