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MNI: Sweden Riksbank Leaves Key Repo Rate At -0.50% - Text

MNI (London)
--First Riksbank Hike Still Not Seen Until Towards End-2018
     LONDON (MNI) - Sweden's Riksbank has decided to leave the key repo rate
unchanged at -0.5% at Monday's meeting, with bond buying plans left unchanged.
The central bank said that it doesn't expect to raise rates until towards the
end of the year.
     The full text of the Riksbank announcement follows:
     ===========================================================================
======
     Repo rate unchanged at -0.50 per cent, increase not expected until towards
end of year 
     Economic activity in Sweden is still strong and inflation has been close to
the target for the past year. However, underlying inflation has been somewhat
lower than expected recently, which raises questions regarding the strength of
the development in inflation. If inflation is to remain close to the target
going forward, continued support is needed from monetary policy. The Executive
Board has therefore decided to hold the repo rate unchanged at -0.50 per cent
and assesses that the rate will begin to be raised towards the end of the year,
which is somewhat later than previously forecast.
     Strong economic activity abroad and in Sweden The overall picture of the
economic outlook and inflation prospects remains largely unchanged since the
monetary policy meeting in February. Economic activity abroad is continuing to
strengthen. However, despite growth being at a high level and unemployment
having fallen, inflationary pressures remain moderate, particularly in the euro
area.
     Conditions in the Swedish economy are strong; the employment rate is high
and unemployment has fallen to the lowest level since the financial crisis.
Inflation has been close to the target over the past year. In March, CPIF
inflation was 2.0 per cent.
     Weaker krona but lower underlying inflation One reason why inflation is now
2 per cent is that energy prices have increased rapidly. Underlying inflation,
on the other hand, has been unexpectedly low recently, which raises questions
regarding the strength of the development in inflation. The weakening of the
krona exchange rate in recent months is contributing to higher inflation, but if
CPIF inflation is to remain close to the target going forward, it is important
that economic activity is strong and has an impact on price developments. It is
also important that the krona exchange rate develops in a way compatible with
inflation stabilising close to the target.
     Inflation needs continued support from monetary policy Monetary policy
therefore needs to remain expansionary and the Executive Board has decided to
hold the repo rate unchanged at -0.50 per cent. Given the questions regarding
underlying inflation, the forecast for the repo rate has been revised down
somewhat and indicates that the rate will start to be raised at a slow pace
towards the end of the year. The Riksbank's holdings of government bonds amount
to just over SEK 320 billion, expressed as a nominal amount. Until further
notice, redemptions and coupon payments will be reinvested in the bond
portfolio.
     Monetary policy needs to proceed cautiously It has taken a long time to
bring up inflation and inflation expectations, and there is considerable
uncertainty over the development of inflation. Monetary policy thus needs to
proceed cautiously. If the conditions for inflation were to change, the
Executive Board is prepared to adjust monetary policy. The risks of too low
inflation merit particular attention, as at the prevailing interest rate levels
this is more difficult to manage than inflation that is too high.
     Important with measures to reduce risks linked to household indebtedness
The low interest rates contribute to increasing the risks linked to high and
rising household indebtedness. At the same time, the fundamental causes of the
high household indebtedness still remain. Achieving long-term sustainable
development in the Swedish economy therefore requires measures within housing
policy, taxation policy and, where necessary, within macroprudential policy.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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