MNI Table Of RBA Cash Rate Forecast; Some Push Back Hike View

--Three See RBA On Hold In Both 2018, 2019

--9/21 Still See Hike in November

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Economists at UBS and AMP Capital have pushed back their

forecasts for the first hike in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate in

this cycle, mainly citing tighter credit conditions due to more stringent

lending standards for investor mortgages by the regulator.

     AMP Capital's chief economist Shane Oliver now expects the RBA to hike the

cash rate sometime in 2020 versus previous forecast for hike in Q1 of 2019. UBS

economists, led by George Tharenou, expect the RBA to hike in the second half of

2019, later than previously forecast Q1 of 2019.

     "We had been expecting the RBA to start raising rates in early 2019 but

with the further tightening in bank lending standards effectively doing the

RBA's work for it and growth likely to remain below 3% and inflation around 2%

for longer, we now don't see an RBA tightening until sometime in 2020," Oliver

wrote in a note.

     "The better budget allows room for significant household tax cuts, an

upside risk to our outlook. But, much of the boost is likely 19/20 onwards. So

while underlying CPI returned to 2% earlier than the RBA expected,

macroprudential policy increases the risk of credit tightening, and we now see

the RBA on hold until 2H-19 (was Q1-19)," Tharenou wrote in a note.

     Oliver now joins Westpac and JP Morgan in not expecting any hike in the

RBA's cash rate both this year and the next.

     Nine out of 21 economists in MNI poll still expect the RBA to hike 25 basis

point in November.

     Below is a table of forecasts for the RBA cash rate decision on May 1 and

the outlook for the cash rate, and where the risk is skewed (where available).

The cash rate is currently at 1.5%.

                    May 1                                   Outlook

-------------------------------------------------------------------

NAB                  Hold        25bps hike in Nov; 2 hikes in 2019

ANZ                  Hold            Hold in 2018; Hike in mid-2019

Westpac              Hold                           Hold 2018, 2019

CBA                  Hold          25bps hike in Nov; Risk of later

Goldman Sachs        Hold        25bps hike in Nov, risk of earlier

Citigroup            Hold          Hike in Nov, risk for later hike

JP Morgan            Hold               Hold for foreseeable future

HSBC                 Hold                         25bps hike in Nov

TD Securities        Hold                         25bps hike in Nov

UBS                  Hold                           Hike in 2H 2019

Deutsche Bank        Hold  Hold 2018; 2 hikes each in 2H 2019, 2020

AMP Capital          Hold                     Hike sometime in 2020

Moody's              Hold        Hold through 2018; Hike early 2019

St. George           Hold                     25bps hike in Q1 2019

Macquarie            Hold     25bps hike Q1 2019, 2.25% by end-2019

Nomura               Hold                         25bps hike in Nov

RBC Capital          Hold                         Hold through 2018

BankAm-ML            Hold                          25bp hike in Nov

Morgan Stanley       Hold                        Hold until Q3 2019

Standard Chartered   Hold                              Hold in 2018

Wells Fargo          Hold                       Hold well into 2018

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MMLRB$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]