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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI U.S. Weekly Macro Wrap
Executive Summary
- Labor data this week mostly continued to point to a cooling jobs market, including the hugely anticipated August employment report which showed both a “miss” in nonfarm payrolls growth (142k vs 165k cons) and heavy downward revisions to the prior 2 months (-86k), alongside a slight downtick in the unemployment rate.
- But following the employment report release, neither NY Fed Pres Williams nor Gov Waller - arguably the 2nd and 3rd most influential FOMC members - sounded particularly concerned about the labor market, with the implication being that the base case for the September FOMC is a 25bp and not 50bp cut.
- Elsewhere, data was mixed: while the ISM Manufacturing survey showed continued signs of sectoral contraction, another all-around solid ISM Services report doesn’t show signs of recession. Nor did the latest edition of weekly jobless claims.
- The composition in the payrolls report plus Fedspeak has seen odds of a 50bp cut in September trimmed, with 31-32bp priced, but beyond that the Fed is expected to embark on a deeper cutting cycle.
- Looking ahead to next week, we won’t get any more Fed communications due to the pre-FOMC blackout – but for observers clinging on to the possibility of a 50bp September hike, Wednesday’s CPI release could be eyed as a tiebreaker after the somewhat equivocal payrolls release.
Please find the full report here:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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