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MNI UK Budget Preview: Markets Expect Around GBP250Bln Gilts In FY2021/22

MNI Gilt Week Ahead - Feb 22 2021: Roadmap to Normality

Tomorrow's Budget will be closely watched by the market as Chancellor Sunak is expected to extend some Covid-19 related support schemes while also put in place some of the first revenue raising measures in an attempt to get the budget back under control. As part of the event, the OBR's updated fiscal forecasts will be released and the DMO will release the gilt remit for FY21/22. The median expectation for gilt sales in the upcoming fiscal year is GBP249.3bln, in a range from GBP225.0-269.3bln. Rather than list all of the measures that are expected to be announced, in this preview we highlight the important points and how they fit in with consensus expectations.

  • Our political risk team looks into how the unique economic circumstances of this Budget have seen some unorthodox political alliances emerge in the run-up to the Chancellor's statement.
  • On the Markets side we also review expectations for the gilt remit, and the breakdown by buckets. We have surveyed 12 gilt primary dealers and also compiled their expectations of green issuance.
  • Finally, like in our central bank previews, we highlight they key points from individual bank's Budget previews.
For the full document, please link the link below:

UK_Budget_Preview_Mar21.pdf


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