MNI: UK Data Forecasts - August Retail Sales Data

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - Strong sales at food stores were responsible for the robust

sales volumes in July, therefore a strong start to Q3 2017. Sales volumes were

up 0.3% m/m in July, as in June, and brought a little calm to what has been a

very erratic series in recent months. 

     The data for August was originally planned to be released last week, but

the ONS announced it would be delayed by six days following a "delay in

processing survey data".

     Survey data covering August was mixed with a rather disastrous CBI

Distributed Trades Survey offset by a better showing in the month's BRC survey. 

     The headline order balance component of the CBI survey fell from +22 in

July to -10 in August while the BRC survey recorded like-for-like sales values

up to 1.3% y/y in August from 0.9% y/y.    

     Given the consecutive 0.3% m/m showings in the last two months, a fair

amount of momentum carried through into Q3 after official sales volumes grew

1.5% q/q in Q2.

     That said, the pace of growth is expected to have moderated in August.

Month-over-month sales volumes are expected to have expanded 0.1% m/m in August,

growing of 1.2% y/y.

     On an ex-fuel basis, sales were projected to have come in flat between July

and August, for growth of 1.3% compared to August last year.     

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                             Aug           Aug           Aug           Aug

                    Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales

                    Incl. Petrol  Incl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol

                           % MoM         % YoY         % MoM         % YoY

Date Out                  20-Sep        20-Sep        20-Sep        20-Sep

Median                       0.1           1.2           0.0           1.3

Forecast High                0.5           1.5           0.5           1.8

Forecast Low                -0.4           0.6          -0.5           0.8

Standard Deviation           0.3           0.4           0.3           0.4

Count                         11             8             8             6

Prior                        0.3           1.3           0.5           1.5

Barclays                     0.5           1.5           N/A           N/A

Capital Economics            0.3           1.3           N/A           N/A

Commerzbank                  0.0           N/A           N/A           N/A

HSBC                        -0.4           0.6          -0.5           0.8

Investec                    -0.3           0.6          -0.3           1.0

JP Morgan                    0.2           N/A           0.2           1.5

Lloyds TSB                  -0.2           0.8          -0.1           1.2

Morgan Stanley               N/A           N/A           0.2           N/A

Nomura                       N/A           N/A           0.0           1.3

Oxford Economics             0.2           1.2           N/A           N/A

Pantheon                     0.0           N/A           N/A           N/A

Scotia                       0.3           1.5           N/A           N/A

Standard Chartered           N/A           1.2           N/A           N/A

Societe Generale             N/A           N/A           0.5           1.8

UniCredit                    0.1           N/A           0.0           N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

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