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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: RBA Holds, Notes Declining Inflation Risk
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday
MNI: UK Data Forecasts - August Retail Sales Data
By Jamie Satchithanantham
LONDON (MNI) - Strong sales at food stores were responsible for the robust
sales volumes in July, therefore a strong start to Q3 2017. Sales volumes were
up 0.3% m/m in July, as in June, and brought a little calm to what has been a
very erratic series in recent months.
The data for August was originally planned to be released last week, but
the ONS announced it would be delayed by six days following a "delay in
processing survey data".
Survey data covering August was mixed with a rather disastrous CBI
Distributed Trades Survey offset by a better showing in the month's BRC survey.
The headline order balance component of the CBI survey fell from +22 in
July to -10 in August while the BRC survey recorded like-for-like sales values
up to 1.3% y/y in August from 0.9% y/y.
Given the consecutive 0.3% m/m showings in the last two months, a fair
amount of momentum carried through into Q3 after official sales volumes grew
1.5% q/q in Q2.
That said, the pace of growth is expected to have moderated in August.
Month-over-month sales volumes are expected to have expanded 0.1% m/m in August,
growing of 1.2% y/y.
On an ex-fuel basis, sales were projected to have come in flat between July
and August, for growth of 1.3% compared to August last year.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug Aug Aug Aug
Retail Sales Retail Sales Retail Sales Retail Sales
Incl. Petrol Incl. Petrol Excl. Petrol Excl. Petrol
% MoM % YoY % MoM % YoY
Date Out 20-Sep 20-Sep 20-Sep 20-Sep
Median 0.1 1.2 0.0 1.3
Forecast High 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.8
Forecast Low -0.4 0.6 -0.5 0.8
Standard Deviation 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
Count 11 8 8 6
Prior 0.3 1.3 0.5 1.5
Barclays 0.5 1.5 N/A N/A
Capital Economics 0.3 1.3 N/A N/A
Commerzbank 0.0 N/A N/A N/A
HSBC -0.4 0.6 -0.5 0.8
Investec -0.3 0.6 -0.3 1.0
JP Morgan 0.2 N/A 0.2 1.5
Lloyds TSB -0.2 0.8 -0.1 1.2
Morgan Stanley N/A N/A 0.2 N/A
Nomura N/A N/A 0.0 1.3
Oxford Economics 0.2 1.2 N/A N/A
Pantheon 0.0 N/A N/A N/A
Scotia 0.3 1.5 N/A N/A
Standard Chartered N/A 1.2 N/A N/A
Societe Generale N/A N/A 0.5 1.8
UniCredit 0.1 N/A 0.0 N/A
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.