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MNI: UK Data Forecasts - August Retail Sales Data

MNI (London)
By Jamie Satchithanantham
     LONDON (MNI) - Strong sales at food stores were responsible for the robust
sales volumes in July, therefore a strong start to Q3 2017. Sales volumes were
up 0.3% m/m in July, as in June, and brought a little calm to what has been a
very erratic series in recent months. 
     The data for August was originally planned to be released last week, but
the ONS announced it would be delayed by six days following a "delay in
processing survey data".
     Survey data covering August was mixed with a rather disastrous CBI
Distributed Trades Survey offset by a better showing in the month's BRC survey. 
     The headline order balance component of the CBI survey fell from +22 in
July to -10 in August while the BRC survey recorded like-for-like sales values
up to 1.3% y/y in August from 0.9% y/y.    
     Given the consecutive 0.3% m/m showings in the last two months, a fair
amount of momentum carried through into Q3 after official sales volumes grew
1.5% q/q in Q2.
     That said, the pace of growth is expected to have moderated in August.
Month-over-month sales volumes are expected to have expanded 0.1% m/m in August,
growing of 1.2% y/y.
     On an ex-fuel basis, sales were projected to have come in flat between July
and August, for growth of 1.3% compared to August last year.     
                             Aug           Aug           Aug           Aug
                    Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales
                    Incl. Petrol  Incl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol
                           % MoM         % YoY         % MoM         % YoY
Date Out                  20-Sep        20-Sep        20-Sep        20-Sep
Median                       0.1           1.2           0.0           1.3
Forecast High                0.5           1.5           0.5           1.8
Forecast Low                -0.4           0.6          -0.5           0.8
Standard Deviation           0.3           0.4           0.3           0.4
Count                         11             8             8             6
Prior                        0.3           1.3           0.5           1.5
Barclays                     0.5           1.5           N/A           N/A
Capital Economics            0.3           1.3           N/A           N/A
Commerzbank                  0.0           N/A           N/A           N/A
HSBC                        -0.4           0.6          -0.5           0.8
Investec                    -0.3           0.6          -0.3           1.0
JP Morgan                    0.2           N/A           0.2           1.5
Lloyds TSB                  -0.2           0.8          -0.1           1.2
Morgan Stanley               N/A           N/A           0.2           N/A
Nomura                       N/A           N/A           0.0           1.3
Oxford Economics             0.2           1.2           N/A           N/A
Pantheon                     0.0           N/A           N/A           N/A
Scotia                       0.3           1.5           N/A           N/A
Standard Chartered           N/A           1.2           N/A           N/A
Societe Generale             N/A           N/A           0.5           1.8
UniCredit                    0.1           N/A           0.0           N/A
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email:
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |

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