MNI UK DATA SURVEY: Feb IoP, Mfg, Construction and Trade

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:00 GMT Apr 9/07:00 EST Apr 9

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - February's upcoming industrial production (IOP) release has

analysts pencilling in a slowdown in activity. Estimated growth in February was

pencilled in at 0.4% m/m, down from 1.3% m/m in January.

     The year-on-year estimate, however, is expected to pick up, rising 1.3pp to

2.9% in February.

------------------------------------------

                           Feb         Feb

                    Industrial  Industrial

                    Production  Production

                         % m/m       % oya

Date Out                11-Apr      11-Apr

Median                     0.4         2.9

Actual

Forecast High              0.7         3.1

Forecast Low               0.2         2.7

Standard Deviation         0.2         0.1

Count                       13           8

Prior                      1.3         1.6

Capital Economics          0.5         3.0

Credit Suisse              0.7         N/A

Commerzbank                0.7         N/A

Investec                   0.2         2.7

JP Morgan                  0.2         2.8

Lloyds TSB                 0.6         3.1

Natixis                    0.4         2.9

Nomura                     0.3         2.9

Oxford Economics           0.4         2.9

Pantheon                   0.2         N/A

Scotia                     0.6         N/A

Societe Generale           0.3         2.8

UniCredit                  0.5         N/A

     Manufacturing, a bright spot within the UK economy in recent months, is

expected to have continued its expansion in February, albeit at a more modest

pace. 

     Month-on-month growth of 0.2% is pencilled in for February, broadly

unchanged from January, which is seen as enough to take the year-on-year rate to

3.3%.  

------------------------------------------------

                              Feb            Feb

                    Manufacturing  Manufacturing

                           Output         Output

                            % m/m          % oya

Date Out                   11-Apr         11-Apr

Median                        0.2            3.3

Actual

Forecast High                 0.3            3.4

Forecast Low                 -0.4            2.9

Standard Deviation            0.2            0.2

Count                          11              8

Prior                         0.1            2.7

Capital Economics             0.1            3.2

Investec                     -0.2            2.9

JP Morgan                     0.1            3.2

Lloyds TSB                    0.2            3.3

Natixis                       0.2            3.3

Nomura                        0.2            3.3

Oxford Economics              0.2            3.3

Pantheon                     -0.3            N/A

Scotia                       -0.4            N/A

Societe Generale              0.3            3.4

UniCredit                     0.3            N/A

     Whilst construction output is expected to bounce back from January's sharp

3.4% m/m decline, analysts have suggested any rebound could be modest in account

of the bad weather seen late in the month. 

     Analyst forecasts suggest m/m growth in February of 0.7%, for an annual

fall of -2.5%. 

----------------------------------------------

                             Feb           Feb

                    Construction  Construction

                          Output        Output

                           % m/m         % oya

Date Out                  11-Apr        11-Apr

Median                       0.7          -2.5

Actual

Forecast High                1.5          -1.8

Forecast Low                -2.0          -2.8

Standard Deviation           1.1           0.4

Count                          8             5

Prior                       -3.4          -3.9

Capital Economics            0.5          -2.8

JP Morgan                    1.0           N/A

Lloyds TSB                   0.8          -2.5

Oxford Economics             1.1          -2.2

Pantheon                     0.5          -2.8

Scotia                       0.0           N/A

Societe Generale             1.5          -1.8

UniCredit                   -2.0           N/A

     One common theme noted among analysts is that the boost to net trade from a

lower pound is still an ongoing presence. This combined with the unwinding of

rising oil prices, and the re-opening of the Forties pipeline, explain why

analysts have pencilled in a narrowing of both the total and visible trade

balance deficit. 

     Analysts anticipate a narrowing of the February total trade balance from

-stg3.1 billion to -stg2.6 billion. 

     The narrowing is slightly less for the visible trade balance, where the

median February estimate suggests a narrowing from -stg12.3 billion to -stg12.0

billion. 

------------------------------------------

                              Feb      Feb

                            Total  Visible

                    Trade balance    Trade

                           stg bn   stg bn

Date Out                   11-Apr   11-Apr

Median                       -2.6    -12.0

Actual

Forecast High                -2.4    -11.6

Forecast Low                 -3.2    -12.3

Standard Deviation            0.3      0.3

Count                           7        4

Prior                        -3.1    -12.3

Capital Economics            -2.4    -11.6

Investec                     -2.6    -11.9

JP Morgan                    -3.1    -12.3

Nomura                        N/A    -12.0

Oxford Economics             -3.2      N/A

Pantheon                     -2.5      N/A

Societe Generale             -2.7      N/A

UniCredit                    -2.5      N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com